Blog

  • A Closer Look at CAPE

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    Many of the value investment blogs have been complaining that the CAPE on the S&P 500 is outrageously high. Clearly, the index is no longer cheap, and when I checked two weeks ago, I was concerned to see that its median EV:sales was now above 3x. But neither am I convinced by some of the commentary on the extreme valuation of the CAPE.

    Some investors share an optimistic belief that the new administration will

    1. spark the economy into a higher growth trajectory, on the back of the...
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  • IPOs gearing up?

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    News about three IPOs this week reminded me that one of my signals of an approaching bull market climax is an increase in volume and a decrease in quality of IPOs. The three IPOs have very little in common:


    Detsky Mir is the largest toys and children’s retailer in Russia. This week, it raised $355m, valuing the company at roughly $1bn, in a rare IPO on the Moscow stock exchange. It looks like confirmation that the Russian market has turned, although the real money was made buying 12...

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